Firozabad Lok Sabha Analysis 2024

Introduction

Firozabad, known as the city of bangles is one of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in the Uttar Pradesh state. It comprises five legislative assembly seats, Tundla, Jasrana, Firozabad, Shikhohabad, and Sirsaganj. It is located in western Uttar Pradesh where Jats, Yadav, Jatav, Rajputs, Kayasthas, Tyagis, Ahirs, Brahmins, Kachhi, Kahar, Gadaria, Kumhar, Bania, Khatik, Lodha, Valmikis, Nai, Gurjars, Dalits, Kurmis and Rohilla Pashtuns are present and the minority castes present has the highest dominance in the state. Muslim voters account for 20% in UP, but in Western UP, it’s 32%. The Jat community is 4% in UP, but 17% in Western UP, and the Dalit community is 21% in UP, but 26% in Western UP, with 80% being Jatav. The Jats in Western UP influence 120 seats. On 45-50 seats, the Jats directly decide victory and defeat. Jats play a decisive role in 11 districts and Firozabad is one of the constituencies. In 2014, BJP swept all the 16 seats in the Western U.P. but in 2019 when SP, BSP, and RLD allied, BJP suffered a setback by winning only 9 seats out of 16 seats while the alliance had the other 7 seats. This time however the odds have completely been changed with the RLD joining hands with the BJP, SP allying with the Congress and the BSP is not in alliance with anyone, and is contesting alone. 

This Lok Sabha seat came into existence in 1957. This is one of the few Lok Sabha seats in UP, where the voters don’t have any strong inclination towards any one political party and the MP has been changing from time to time. In this Lok Sabha constituency, from national parties like BJP and Congress to regional parties like SP and even the independent candidates in the past have won. In 1957, Independent candidate Shri Thakur Brajraj Singh (GEN-Rajput) won that election and became the first MP of Firozabad. During the 1960s, due to the absence of an election in 1962, Shri Brijraj Singh’s (GEN-Rajput) tenure was consequently extended, and then in 1967, Shiv Charan Lal of the United Socialist Party won this seat. During the 1970s, Congress won the election in 1971, and in 1976, this seat was taken by an independent leader. During the 1980s, Congress returned in 1984, and then in 1989, this seat came into the hands of Janata Dal, but in the next elections just two years later, this seat went out of its hands and came into the hands of BJP. In 1991, the Bharatiya Janata Party established its dominance in the region and BJP leader Shri Prabhu Dayal Katheria (Dalit-Dhanuk) became the MP of Firozabad. He won 3 consecutive Lok Sabha elections and remained MP for 7 years. Since 1999, the Samajwadi party has won this Lok Sabha seat. In 2009, SP chief Shri Akhilesh Yadav(OBC-Yadav) himself contested this Lok Sabha seat and won however he resigned after some time and Congress’ Shri Raj Singh Babbar (GEN-Kshatriyas) was reelected from there. In 2014 again SP won the elections but in 2019 Lotus bloomed and  BJP’s experienced candidate, Dr. Chandra Sen Jadon (GEN-Kshatriya) defeated SP’s Shri Akshay Yadav (OBC) by a margin of over 27000 votes and became the MP of Firozabad. There has been a close contest between the BJP and SP over this Lok Sabha seat. 

Caste Analysis of Firozabad Constituency

In India, caste plays a critical role in deciding the electoral outcomes, and Firozabad is no exception to this. It is a General category parliament seat. It comprises the entire Firozabad district. As per the 2019 parliamentary elections, the total Voters account for around 20 lakh. Out of which, Yadav voters account for around 21.55%, apart from this there are 10.5% Jatav, 8.25% Thakur, 7.35% Brahmin, 7.8% Muslim,  and 6.05% Lodhi voters. Other castes including Rajput, Dalit, and Vaishya are also present here in good numbers. However, the Yadav-Muslim equation has the most influence as they are the deciding factor for the election in this constituency. The Yadavs and The Muslims were the traditional vote bank of the SP, but now the votes of the Yadav community have been divided between the BJP and the SP.

2014 Lok Sabha Election analysis

In the 2014 elections, SP gave a ticket to a member of the “SAIFAI FAMILY”, Akshay Yadav, while BJP gave the ticket to Prof. S.P. Singh Bhagel. The SP has a stronghold in this constituency and that’s why they decided to give the ticket to a family member. Shri Akshay Yadav (OBC-Yadav) of SP got  49.93% votes followed by BJP’s Prof. S.P. Singh Bhagel (OBC-Dhangar) who got only 35.97% votes. The Muslim-yadav factor worked for the SP as Akshay Yadav defeated (OBC-Yadav) BJP’s Prof. S.P. Singh Baghel (OBC-Dhangar) by a sizable margin of 114,059 votes or 6.97%. 

2019 Lok Sabha Election Analysis

In the 2019 elections, SP retained its candidate, while BJP gave a ticket to the new candidate, Dr. Chandra Sen Jadon, and BJP defeated SP by a margin of 2.7%. BJP received 494050 votes with a vote share of 46.4% while SP gained 43.7% vote share. The main reason for SP’s defeat in their stronghold seat was because of the “CHACHA-BHATIJA” conflict in the “SAIFAI FAMILY” that resulted in the formation of a new party by Shri Shivpal Singh Yadav, the PSPL (Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party). Not only did he spoil the equation of SP, but because of this, their traditional seat went to the BJP’s account, as the Yadav votes were divided among both parties, Shivpal Yadav received around 90000 votes. If  Shivpal Yadav had not conflicted with his family, then SP would have got the remaining ballots and SP would have won again from this seat. But BJP’s Dr. Chandrasen won from here by defeating SP’s Akshay Yadav. For the Lok Sabha elections 2024, Shivpal Yadav has announced to correct this mistake and give full support to his nephew, and also ensure the victory of Akshay Yadav from Firozabad. There are a total of 5 assembly seats in Firozabad Lok Sabha constituency. Out of the 5 Assembly segments, BJP was leading in 3 assembly segments  (Tundla  (SC), Jasrana, and Firozabad ) and SP was leading in 2 assembly segments  (Shikohabad and Sirsaganj). 

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