Introduction

The Palakkad constituency in Kerala was the focal point of intense political activity due to its first-ever by-election, necessitated by the resignation of Shafi Parambil, who won a Lok Sabha seat. The election was set against significant political maneuvering, controversies, and clashes among the major parties. The Palakkad by-election held on November 20, 2024, resulted in a substantial victory for Rahul Mamkootathil of the United Democratic Front (UDF), who won by a margin of 18,840 votes against BJP’s C. Krishnakumar. 

Past Election Analysis 

• The UDF has maintained a stronghold in Palakkad, winning the seat in both the 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections. Shafi Parambil won with a comfortable margin in 2021 against BJP’s E. Sreedharan. The UDF focused on social welfare programs and infrastructure development, appealing to SC/ST communities and urban voters.

• The BJP has seen a gradual increase in its vote share, particularly in urban areas. In the 2021 elections, Sreedharan lost by a narrow margin of 3,859 votes, indicating growing support. The BJP aimed to consolidate Hindu votes and present itself as a viable alternative through development narratives and local governance successes.

• The LDF’s influence has waned in recent elections, with its candidates struggling to secure significant votes. In the 2024 by-election, Sarin received about 27.10% of the vote share. The LDF attempted to attract disenchanted Congress voters but faced challenges due to internal party dynamics and candidate selection issues.
• The contest between the political parties has shifted from a triangular to a bipolar fight. Currently, the contest is between UDF and BJP.