AbstractÂ
This research paper analyses the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Chhattisgarh, focusing on voting patterns, caste dynamics, and party performance across the state’s 11 constituencies. The study explores the historical voting trends from the 2014 and 2019 elections and examines the impact of caste-based strategies employed by major political parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC). Key findings highlight the BJP’s continued dominance, bolstered by effective voter outreach, strategic candidate selection, and national appeal, particularly under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The paper also discusses the implications of increased voter turnout, shifting caste loyalties, and the emerging importance of tribal and OBC communities in shaping electoral outcomes. By analysing exit polls and election results, this study offers a comprehensive overview of the political landscape in Chhattisgarh and outlines the challenges the Congress faces in balancing its appeal among diverse social segments.
Keywords: Chhattisgarh Lok Sabha Election 2024, Voting Patterns, Caste Dynamics, BJP vs Congress, Electoral Analysis, Tribal and OBC Influence, Political Strategy, Election Results, Voter Turnout, Caste Census Impact.
IntroductionÂ
After separation from Madhya Pradesh in the year 2000, Chhattisgarh emerged as a new state. Talking about the electoral battle, there are many regional parties in this state, but from the beginning, the main contest here has been between the BJP and the Congress. The Election Commission of India, on 16th March 2024, announced the schedule of the 2024 Indian General Election, with Chhattisgarh scheduled to vote from 19 April 2024 and concluding on 7 May 2024 to elect 11 members of the 18th Lok Sabha. The 11 Members are selected from 11 constituencies, which are Bastar (ST), Bilaspur, Durg, Janjgir-Champa (SC), Kanker (ST), Korba, Mahasamund, Raigarh (ST), Raipur, Rajnandgaon and Sarguja (ST). As per the 2011 Census in Chhattisgarh, the SC Voters are approximately 32,74,269 which is around 12.8% of the Total Population. Similarly, the ST Voters in the whole of constituencies are 78,22,902 which is approx. around 30.6% of the Total Population. The constituencies have 23.2% of its population living in urban areas while 76.8% are living in rural areas.
Votes were cast in three phases for 11 Lok Sabha seats of Chhattisgarh. In the first phase, on April 19, only the Naxal-affected Bastar seat was voted. In the second phase on April 26, voters in three seats – Rajnandgaon, Mahasamund and Kanker – used their franchise. In the third phase held on May 7, voting was held in seven seats – Surguja, Raigarh, Janjgir-Champa, Korba, Bilaspur, Durg and Raipur. During the first phase of voting, people of 56 villages in Bastar voted for the first time in polling stations set up in their villages. The voter turnout in this phase was 84.67 per cent. Rajnandgaon Lok Sabha seat has become the focal point, where Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel, the State’s former Chief Minister (2018-23), is pitted against the sitting BJP MP Santosh Pandey, who is an RSS protégé. The election outcome is likely to impact Baghel’s political fate. In the second phase, 74.07 percent of voting was recorded. In the third phase, 71.06 percent of voting was recorded. The exit polls on June 1 have brought good news for the BJP. This time BJP seems to be getting an edge compared to the last election. According to the exit poll, BJP will get 10 seats this time while Congress will get one seat. If the projections translate into results, it is a big setback for the grand old party of the country. In 2019, the BJP won 9 seats.
Caste Analysis of Chhattisgarh & Seats
Chhattisgarh’s caste composition is complex in the sense that there is no single caste group that is numerically predominant such as the Marathas in Maharashtra or the Jats in Haryana and the Lingayats of Karnataka. Chhattisgarh’s electoral landscape is shaped by diverse caste groups, each wielding significant influence. The Gonds, the largest scheduled tribe ST (17% of the population), initially supported the BJP but shifted to Congress in recent years. Telis/Sahus (14%), an OBC group, have been crucial swing voters, initially favouring BJP but later supporting Congress under Bhupesh Baghel’s leadership. Kurmis (5.34%), another OBC community, has consistently backed Congress, with Bhupesh Baghel emerging as a prominent leader. The Oraon tribe, largely Christianized, has favoured Congress since 2013. Aghariyas and Yadavs have shown mixed support, while Kanwars (3.91%) switched from Congress to BJP in 2013. Upper castes like Brahmins and Baniyas have remained loyal BJP supporters. The Rajput community, though small, has also consistently backed the BJP since 2003. These caste dynamics play a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes in Chhattisgarh, with parties constantly strategizing to maintain or gain support from these various groups. Baghel has been projecting himself as a leader from the OBCs, which constitutes over 40 per cent of the State’s total population.
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